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US Economic Perspectives:How far to r-star

2019-11-24 02:15

10bet十博下载,Given a high degree of uncertainty about the current level of r-star, theabsence of any noticeable drag from the Fed's tightening on economicactivity, and the continued easing of financial conditions, we argue thatevolving views on r-star are unlikely to cause the Fed to re-think the neartermtrajectory of its hiking cycle. Indeed, even if r-star does not recoversignificantly in the coming years, historical Fed behavior would still beconsistent with a nominal terminal rate well above 2%. In this sense, it ispremature for the Fed to reconsider their r-star narrative, and the balanceof evidence suggests that the Fed is not close to being done with its hikingcycle.

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